Source – In anticipation of the next US Presidential Election, now just days away, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, launched our Swing State tracker poll in October 2023.
Our final iteration of this polling includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Today, our final Presidential Voting Intention poll of 9,742 swing state voters finds Donald Trump now leading Kamala Harris in four out of seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The candidates are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin.
Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Donald Trump’s leads have narrowed in North Carolina (+1%, -1) and Arizona (+1%, -1), while he retains a one-point lead in Georgia (+1%, –). At the same time, Trump has taken a narrow, one-point lead in Nevada (+1%, +1).
Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has seen her advantage in Wisconsin narrow to a single point (48% to 47%), while she has lost her one-point lead in Michigan from last week to now be tied there (47% each). The candidates remain tied in Pennsylvania.
In every state polled, the candidates are either tied or the lead for either Trump or Harris is within the margin of error. In addition, between 2% and 4% of likely voters in the states polled remain undecided how they will vote in the Presidential Election—figures greater than the leads for either candidate.
For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona (by 10,457 votes), Georgia (11,779), Michigan (154,188), Nevada (33,596), Pennsylvania (80,555), and Wisconsin (20,682), while Donald Trump defeated Biden in North Carolina (74,483).
In a tight election, with many of these states likely to be settled by only a few thousand votes, any movement of 2020 Biden voters to Trump or 2020 Trump voters to Harris could make the key difference.
In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris.Â
Between 9% and 14% of Biden 2020 voters in these states now say they will vote for Trump, while between 5% and 9% of Trump 2020 voters now say they will vote for Kamala Harris.
Furthermore, a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in six of the seven states polled.
Between 87% and 92% of 2020 Trump voters in these states now say they will vote for Trump again, compared to between 83% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris.
