Tropical Storm Ian officially formed as a tropical storm overnight

9/24/2022

Saturday 4am Tropical Update: Ian officially formed as a tropical storm overnight. It is still forecast to make landfall in Florida as a major Cat 3 hurricane on Wednesday.

It is also expected to strengthen into a Cat 1 hurricane before arriving to the Cayman Islands and a Cat 2 hurricane before landfall in Cuba.

EYEING UP THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
Tropical Storm Ian formed overnight. Yes, we said Ian and not Hermine because apparently Hermine formed off the coast of Africa Friday evening. So, moving forward Ian will be the name of concern.

Ian is battling a bit of wind shear at the moment and will have a tough time strengthening over the next 24-36 hours.

However, with an upper-level high pressure system moving directly overhead and very warm waters in the Caribbean, rapid strengthening is expected as Ian closes in on the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

Ian will likely become a category 1 hurricane (74-95 mph winds) as it approaches the Cayman Islands some time Monday morning.

From there, Ian will likely strengthen into a category 2 hurricane (96-110 mph winds) as it closes in on the western tip of Cuba Tuesday morning.

After that, 45% of the ATCF guidance models have this thing exploding into a MAJOR category 3 as it closes in on the gulf coast of Florida. That’s up from yesterday’s 39%.

But it’s even more of a jump than what the percentage number actually suggests because now that the center of Ian has formed and it’s getting closer to the United States, more ATCF models are seeing it and plotting its course.

Right now, the exact track from the National Hurricane Center would have the eye of Ian making landfall near Sarasota, Florida some time Wednesday evening/night. But the forecast cone is really large over Florida because of the amount of uncertainty at this time.

Technically, according to the NHC, hurricane impacts could be felt anywhere from the Florida Keys to Pensacola.

Thankfully, there will not be a new or full moon while Ian approaches Florida. But if a category 3 with its 111 to 129 mph winds were to hit during high tide, the flooding would be nothing less than devastating.

Especially in this low-lying area. The storm surge alone would produce a tremendous amount of flooding.

At this time, I would suggest anyone living or traveling in an area from Fort Myers to Tampa during the middle of next week should be getting prepared with supplies now.