New research published August 12 in the journal CancerTrusted Source predicts that from 2022—2050, global cases of cancer in males will increase from 10.3 million to 19 million — an increase of around 84%.
Similarly, they predict that deaths from cancer in males will increase from 5.4 million to 10.5 million. In males ages 65 and older, the increase in cancer deaths will more than double.
According to the study, these increases are most pronounced in regions with low and medium Human Development Index (HDI), a metric that includes information about life expectancy, education level, and per capita income.
The authors calculate that globally, cancer cases and deaths will increase among working-age males by around 39%, and in regions with “very high” HDI scores, like the United States, they will increase by around 50%.
Previous researchTrusted Source has shown that the cancer incidence rate in males is 19% higher than in females, globally. Cancer death rates are also 43% higher in males.
Tingting Tan, MD, PhD, a medical oncologist and hematologist at City of Hope Newport Beach, CA, who was not involved in the study, told Healthine there’s a “1 in 2 chance a man will be diagnosed in his lifetime while a woman has a 1 in 3 chance.”
Although experts have investigated this disparity, most studies to date focused on just one form of cancer, one specific age group, or one geographical area.
The latest study, however, calculates the rates of 30 cancer types in all age groups, globally.
The scientists examined cancer incidence and death rates in 2022 and predicted how these numbers may change by the year 2050.
While the percentage increases in cancer rates determined by this study are concerning, it’s important to consider how this translates to the number of individual cancer cases overall.
For instance, imagine a form of cancer that affects 1 person in 100,000. If this rate increases to 2 people per 100,000, that would be an increase of 100% because the rate has doubled.
According to the study, in 2022, there were 10.3 million cases of cancer in males and 5.4 million related deaths. Overall, lung cancer had the highest incidence and mortality rates.
Looking at all cancer types, the scientists calculate there will be an 84.3% increase in cancer incidence by 2050 — rising from 10,311,610 in 2022 to 19,000,529.
They predict cancer mortality will increase by 93.2%, almost doubling from 5,430,284 to 10,490,923 deaths.
