The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data
Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively).
For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise slightly faster than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 5.9 percent.
Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 3.3 percent, with a prediction interval of -0.2 to 7.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.1 to 4.7 percent.
Overall, prices for food-at-home rose by 0.8 percent between December 2024 and January 2025. This was partially an effect of seasonal trends, since prices typically increase in January following the holiday season. From December 2024 to January 2025, prices increased for 11 food-at-home categories and declined for 4 categories.
In 2025, prices are predicted to grow at above-average rates for eggs, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and fresh fruits, while dairy products are expected to grow at near-average rates. Prices for 10 other food-at-home categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Beef and veal prices increased by 0.3 percent in January 2025 and were 5.5 percent higher than in January 2024. Beef and veal price increases are expected to moderate compared to 2024, but prices are predicted to continue to increase in 2025 due to tight supplies and continued demand.
Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 3.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.6 to 11.8 percent.
Retail egg prices increased by 13.8 percent in January 2025 after rising by 8.4 percent in December 2024. Retail egg prices continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022.
HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. About 18.8 million commercial egg layers were affected by HPAI in January 2025, the highest monthly total since the outbreak began in 2022.
Egg prices in January 2025 were 53.0 percent higher than in January 2024 and surpassed the previous peak prices in January 2023. Egg prices are predicted to increase 41.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 15.0 to 74.9 percent.
Prices also increased by more than 1.0 percent in January 2025 for sugar and sweets (by 2.2 percent), nonalcoholic beverages (by 2.2 percent), processed fruits and vegetables (by 1.1 percent), and fats and oils (by 1.1 percent).
Prices for sugar and sweets and nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to grow the fastest behind eggs, while prices for processed fruits and vegetables and fats and oils are still forecast to grow more slowly than their historical averages. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 6.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 2.9 to 10.1 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 4.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.0 to 7.9 percent. Prices for processed fruits and vegetables are predicted to increase by 1.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -3.3 to 5.7 percent.
Prices for fats and oils are predicted to increase by 0.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.4 to 5.9 percent.
