AP – Hurricane Helene is expected to produce “unsurvivable storm surge” in the area of Apalachee Bay, Florida.
Helene’s center was about 430 miles (735 kilometers) southwest of Tampa, Florida, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said, and the hurricane was expected to intensify and accelerate as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico toward the Big Bend area of Florida’s northwestern coast.
Landfall was expected sometime Thursday evening, and the hurricane center said by then it could be a major Category 4 storm with winds above 129 mph (208 kph).
Tropical storm conditions were expected in southern Florida Wednesday night, spreading northward and encompassing the rest of Florida as well as Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday night.
The storm was moving north at 12 mph (19 kph) with top sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph) Wednesday evening.
Helene could create a life-threatening storm surge as high as 20 feet (6.1 meters) in parts of the Big Bend region, forecasters said. Its tropical storm-force winds extended as far as 345 miles (555 kilometers) from its center.
Our forecast setup for what will be steering the tropical system is an unusual one.
A storm system will get pinched off from the steering winds of the jet stream, and will be “cut off” allowing itself to spin around and meander over the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley’s through the weekend.
Forecasts are in excellent agreement for this storm to merge once the tropical system moves on shore.
We have high confidence on the storm making landfall in the Big Bend of Florida as a major hurricane but will stay well away from New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coast into southwest Georgia, including Tallahassee. Storm surge warnings extend from Mexico Beach southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
As shown in the map below, tropical storm warnings cover almost the entire rest of Florida and Georgia not covered by hurricane warnings, all of South Carolina and much of western North Carolina.
These alerts mean hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge conditions are expected in these areas as Helene moves in.
Interests in the warned areas should implement their hurricane plans and heed any advice from local emergency managers.
