Falling gas costs, rising carbon prices spur change in fuel dynamics

Analysts say the switch in so-called clean-dark and clean spark prices indicates that gas power is becoming more competitive from a cost perspective, but supply security remains challenging, especially for countries that used to rely on Russian gas.

The clean-dark and clean-spark spreads are the prices paid for the operation of a coal- or gas-fired power plant respectively, when adjusted for mandatory carbon emissions permits and fuel purchases.

The countries that could see significant coal-to-gas switching are Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, Refinitiv analyst Nathalie Gerl said, while Germany will need to fill a 4 gigawatt (GW) generation gap as the country permanently phases out nuclear in April.

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